The NFL’s division system in effect creates a collection of small economic markets. In the soft NFC East, for example, the level of competition means that it takes relatively little to become a division champion. The AFC West has become the polar opposite. Lately the Chiefs have had their way with this division, capturing the last six titles. But now every other opponent has assembled its own version of a superteam. Perhaps they were spurred on by the realization that Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is tied to the franchise through 2031, isn’t going anywhere, and they can’t simply wait until he’s gone.
Last year the Chargers showed they were ready to engage. Behind 24-year-old wunderkind quarterback Justin Herbert and 39-year-old rookie head coach Brandon Staley, they made a legitimate run at the playoffs, falling short in a 35–32 overtime loss to Las Vegas in the season finale. In the offseason Los Angeles addressed a defense that ranked 23rd in the league, signing two difference-makers in cornerback J.C. Jackson from the Patriots and edge rusher Khalil Mack from the Bears. Expect Mack and fellow edge rusher Joey Bosa to have plenty of meetings with the opposing quarterback.
The Raiders, after making the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, come back this year with new leadership after coach Jon Gruden was fired midway through the season in the wake of the release of old emails with incriminating comments. Las Vegas raided the Patriots, hiring longtime offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach and personnel executive Dave Ziegler as general manager. On the field the monster addition is Davante Adams, brought in from Green Bay in exchange for first- and second-round picks. It was a steep price, but Adams is arguably the best receiver in football—and a former Fresno State teammate of still-improving 31-year-old quarterback Derek Carr. On defense Las Vegas added veteran pass rusher Chandler Jones from the Cardinals to pair with Maxx Crosby, who signed a four-year, $94 million extension this offseason following his second-team All-Pro nod in 2021.
But the most seismic moves were made in Denver. The team replaced defensive-minded head coach Vic Fangio with Nathaniel Hackett, 42, a widely admired offensive mind who spent the past three seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Packers. While Hackett certainly benefited from working with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, he has had success in a variety of situations. In Jacksonville he helped a Blake Bortles-led team to the AFC championship game in 2017. At Syracuse, he produced the school’s first quarterback draft pick (Ryan Nassib in ’14) since Donovan McNabb in 1999. In Denver, Hackett will work with Russell Wilson, who won a Super Bowl eight years ago in Seattle and may or may not have forced his way out of town after growing stale in the ball-control offense of coach Pete Carroll.
Wilson is the real game-changer. If Hackett can rejuvenate the nine-time Pro Bowl QB—who last year endured his first career losing season—that will give Mahomes his greatest and most immediate foil and complete a revamping of the AFC West in which every team now has a fighting shot. And when you factor in that Mahomes will be lining up for the first time in his career without his favorite deep target, three-time All-Pro Tyreek Hill, who was traded to Miami, consider this market officially disrupted.
