The only glimmer of hope for New Orleans to make the postseason would be winning their final two games over the Eagles and Panthers. They also need Carolina to beat the Buccaneers in Week 17 and Tampa to lose the following Sunday in Atlanta. The Saints are 2-5 on the road.
The Eagles need one win or a Cowboys loss to clinch the NFC East. In addition, a victory over the final two weeks would secure the top seed in the NFC. Philadelphia wins the tiebreaker over the Vikings if the two teams finish with the same record at the top of their conference. The 49ers could sneak up to the number one seed with a pair of wins, a Vikings loss, and the Eagles failing to win their final two games.
The Saints’ defense allowed 20 points or fewer over their previous six games, but they have lost the time of possession battle six times over the last seven weeks. New Orleans tends to be up and down vs. the run (436/1,980/12 – 4.5 yards per carry) while showing some weakness against running quarterbacks (71/377/4). No wide receiving corps has gained over 170 yards since Week 6. They allow 6.3 yards per pass attempt while securing 40 sacks.
Philadelphia doesn’t expect to have Jalen Hurts behind center this week, supported by the betting line for this game. In addition, Miles Sanders (knee) and A.J. Brown (knee) landed on the injury report this week. Gardner Minshew threw the ball well (355/2) vs. the Cowboys, but his late turnovers led to the Eagles losing a hard-fought battle. The loss of RT Lane Johnson is another blow to Philadelphia’s offense.
The Eagles have risk defending the run (389/1,810/13 – 4.7 yards per rush), and their defense allowed 10 touchdowns over their last three matchups (35 possessions). Their pass rush (64 sacks in 2022) has been impressive over the previous four weeks (6, 7, 6, and 7) vs. TEN, NYG, CHI, and DAL. Philly holds quarterbacks to 6.4 yards per pass attempt with 21 touchdowns (11 over the past five matchups).
New Orleans gained fewer than 4.0 yards per rush in seven straight games. Their best rushing weapon at the goal line this year has been Taysom Hill (77/505/6). The Saints need WR Chris Olave back in the starting lineup, but I don’t see him playing after missing Week 16 with a hamstring issue.
Saints vs. Eagles Odds, Spread, Game Info
Moneyline: Saints (+205) | Eagles (-250)
Spread: NO +5.5 (-110) | SF -5.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 – Over: (-118) | Under: (+100)
Game Info: January 1st, 2023 | 1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
Saints Straight-Up Record: 6-9
Saints Against The Spread Record: 6-9
Eagles Straight-Up Record: 13-2
Eagles Against The Spread Record: 8-7
Bet Saints-Eagles on SI Sportsbook
Odds and Betting Insights
The Saints’ inability to score will be their downfall in this game. They will try their best to run the ball, but Philadelphia’s secondary and pass rush will lead to many short drives. The Eagles need Brown in the starting lineup to help open up the field for DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. I expect an easy cover by Philadelphia, led by better-than-expected games by Kenneth Gainwell and their star tight end.
The game total in Eagles’ games has gone over 10 times in their 15 matchups, including eight of the past 10 contests. Philadelphia failed to cover the spread in five of their previous eight games (four of these losses were on the road). In addition, they are 6-1 vs. the points spread at home.The under in the game total has been the winning play in four consecutive Saints’ games (seven of the last eight). New Orleans started the season 0-5 on the road against the spread, but they covered in their last two matchups (@TB – 16-17 and @CLE – 17-10).
